I tracked the electoral college votes based on state popularity polls versus the Dow Jones Industrial average. DJIA values scaled down by a factor of 50 in order to graph in the same range. McCain isn’t far off his July baseline (5%, or statistically insignificant), and Obama’s apparent increase in strength of late (9%) is worth noting though hardly stupendous. The take home message, contrary to media reports, is that McCain and Obama are tracking very near their averages if we ignore the last two weeks.
Consider the average of both candidates, except for the last week, which incidentally coincides with the start of early voting, both Obama and McCain tracked even to their average values, in spite of all the other data. Where they may oscillate in terms of absolute popularity, the assignment of electoral college votes indicates that they basically held the same states without much variation, irrespective of most influences. Both candidates enjoyed a brief surge with the selection of their VP candidates, taking the extra votes not from each other but from undecided states.
The fall of the market coincides with the only time at which Obama appears to have gained any advantage. I am not sure which is causative, if any, of the other, but when Obama finally broke away, the market had fallen 2000 points from its tracking average. During that time, the stimulus package passed, which probably accounts for the loss of value in the Dow, but we cannot discount the effect that Obama’s tax plan will have on business if he wins. Rush Limbaugh said this morning that prominent businessmen he knows are preparing for an Obama victory by laying people off, or targeting them for layoffs, predicting 2009 as the worst year economically in their lifetimes should Obama win.
The media chose to omit the fact that since being nominated, Obama has only really gained any advantage in the last two weeks. If he were as strong and inevitable as the pollsters claim, would he not have opened and maintained an early strong lead? The recent maneuverings and attacks indicate that Obama is running scared, growing desperate, and unsure of how things will turn out. Yesterday, Yahoo ran a story pointing out that the media once published that Dewey defeats Truman, and that by this time in his race, Reagan was down 12% compared to Carter. Polls constitute nothing more than a way to move a story from the editorial page to the front page and project what someone thinks/wants to happen into impressionable minds. This kind of psychological war disheartens, and if it disheartens enough, it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Buyer beware.
Raw data:
| Electoral college results courtesy Karl Rove |
| DJIA values courtesy of Yahoo Finance |
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