11 October 2008

Past Performance is a Poor Predictor

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This past week, some of the girls who rejected me for a relationship admitted that they did so because I’m not rich. Apparently, none of them watch the stock market, which this year alone has lost over 5000 points, which means that people have lost trillion$ of dollar$ in value this year. In all of the gold advertisements from Leer Financial, they add the proviso that “past performance does not guarantee future results”, but girls and people in general seem to only care about what happens right now.

Historical perspective on the market tells us that the market will rebound, eventually. What is today will not be forever, and while we may not be at the bottom, this is most definitely not the top. Businesses come and go. People lose their jobs. You never know what tomorrow holds.

One particular girl makes an interesting case. Her ex husband lost his $500,000 job last year as part of his indictment for sodomy. She pursued this other flaky liar because he earns $250,000, although she knew he was dating other girls, sometimes having multiple dates in one night. Now, I only earn $46,000, but it’s not bad considering my age and my rank in the organization when you consider that my major professor in grad school was pulling down $65,000 after 13 years of teaching college. By the time I’m his age, I’ll have surpassed him at this rate.

In addition, most young people, even if they have money, don’t really look like it because they don’t know how to handle it. This week I read an article about why people aren’t rich who should be. The basic premise of the article is that “people spend money they don’t have buying things they don’t need to impress people they don’t like”. Bad money management keeps most people from being rich.

Chief among these, and I found this really ironic, was

You care what your car looks like

Fortunately for me, I inherited pragmatism from my father, who enjoys nice things, but buys them when they’re on sale. He’s the primary reason I learned about sweat equity. In his mind, a car is a tool. As long as it’s functional, who cares? The last brand new car he bought was in 1998, and of the more than 30 vehicles he’s ever owned, fewer than five were bought brand new.

The rest of the reasons revolve around the concept of trading what they want most for what they want at the moment. Opulent living leads to consumer debt, and most people think they deserve the lifestyle now that it took their parents 20 years to accumulate. So too it seems do the girls expect us to EARN what it took our parents 20 years to deserve. Young people don’t shop around, they buy to impress or just because they can. My sister told me a few months ago how one of the city lifeguards planned with his paycheck to “trick out his car”. Why do you spend money on things that depreciate?

Resultant from these practices of keeping up with the Joneses or impressing the ladies, young people get into investing too little too late. Most of my peers inaccurately adjudge the market as too risky for investment, when in reality stocks are on sale for 40% off compared to the same time last year. Stocks are the only things people don’t want when they’re on sale.

As far as wage is concerned, the article points out the value of doing something you enjoy. I have already started and failed at business and as such decided I want no further part of that. The girl I mentioned earlier suggested I compete for a job as a coroner ($150,000/year), but it would take me six years of medical school to qualify, and I’d rack up a lot of debt to do so. Plus, I don’t really like that kind of macabre employ. I like teaching, and I’m fairly good at it to boot. Furthermore, it matters little how much you earn; what matters most is how much you save.

Recently my dad and I discussed his purchasing another vehicle (used for under $10,000) so he doesn’t have to drive his Suburban to work. Originally he balked at the idea because he didn’t want to go into debt. For my own part, since I save over 50% of what I earn, I told him that if it were I, I could do so easily, not that debt in itself is the problem as much as it’s a problem of people living beyond their means. If you can afford it because like me you don’t need everything you earn, it’s still within your means to pay.

That being said, there’s no guarantee that tomorrow I’ll have this job. I’ve been laid off twice before, once for a short time, and then when I finished grad school and the graduate stipend expired. With state budget cuts and my lack of seniority, the dean notified me that my name appears on the cut list if the governor requires reduction of forces. Not even government jobs are safe anymore. Besides that, I could be hit by a car tomorrow and wind up a paraplegic. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

After all, everyone once thought the world was flat. Foolish mortals.

3 comments:

Bri said...

I've read a few good books on how to get rich, all of them follow the same basic premise: spend less then you make. None of them can/will guarantee you overnight success. They usually offer tips, much like you are talking about with your car: it depreciates, and is a tool, nothing more. Money will come to you, but it will take time and effort. This is possible for everyone, too.

One thing I've rediscovered is ebay. If you have the patience, you can get a product for a fraction of the retail price. Especially so if you dont mind a used product. This is how I bought my wife's cell phone and a few other items over the years. Spend the time and shop around. Investigate sellers' history and feedback. You'll thank yourself later.

Too many people equate riches with quantity of money. If Hollywood has taught us anything, it is that you can lose it all overnight. Some of the richest and most famous people in America get caught in scandals, court fees, and accidents, none of which end up being cheap. I hear all the time about how this famous actor back in the day, now has to work at Target for a living, because he was irresponsible with his money.

On a personal note, a former coworker of mine offered me a job that would pay me over twice what I am pulling in now, and all I need to do is say 'yes.' I turned him down. Am I stupid?

Actually, I still do not regret that decision. I knew the job he was offering was in a much more stressful environment than I prefer. I am getting by quite well with what I have and I value happiness at work more than a few extra numbers in my bank account. I guess doing what I love for work, and loving it is my goal in life. I've tried doing what I love, and growing to hate it. That was the worst 3 months in semi-recent memory. But I learned from it, and am richer for the experience, although those riches cannot be measured numerically.

Doug Funny said...

Thanks for your thoughtful input.

When I was looking for jobs, I also turned down a few things in California knowing that, although they offered higher wages, the offset in costs far exceeded the extra money being offered.

Beyond that, I'm doing something I genuinely enjoy. I talked with my best friend last night about some of my options, and if I can get the same kind of gig for proportionally better pay, I will, but for now, at least I like going to work, regardless of how much money it pays. Too many people use the extra money they earn making up for how much they hate what they do for it.

I miss the old Citibank advertisement slogan: There's more to life than money. Live richly.

Anonymous said...

Regarding cars, I needed a safe, dependable vehicle which is not necessarily new but has low enough mileage so that it will hopefully be a keeper. I think I found my own R2D2!
BP