04 October 2012

October Surprises

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As is usual in politics, I expect there to be a whole slieu of October surprises. Most of these things have proven in past years to be untrue. As such, my advice is to ignore new things about which you have heard nothing prior to October.

Both campaigns have enough money that if it was true in September, they could have found it and publicized it. In 2004, I fell victim to an ad in the last few weeks and changed my vote on a rumor, and I have never regretted any cast vote more than that (not that my vote was the only one that made a difference). I believed a story without anything to back it up other than what I heard on the news. The news is frequently wrong.

I intend, and I advise you to do the same, to look only at things that have already been reported. Either they are what they claim they are and history will support it or they are demagogues. There may be some interesting developments in the last moments, but most people are pretty much already decided.

This week's debate didn't change my mind. I don't really think it changed the minds of many people. Most of the new information will just be emotional (Obama Phone!) or a bribe (Obama Phone!), and so is based as far from reason as possible.

Wait until November, then go vote. It will be interesting to see if November is a surprise.

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