15 August 2012

'Unfair' Medal Counts

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Many of my foreign friends, in particular British people, have complained that the United States wins too many Olympic medals. They contest that the medals should be more evenly distributed and that we have an unfair advantage because we can afford better training, etc. What the data actually shows is a different story, however, and the same people who did the complaining ended up winning far more than UK's 'Fair Share'. The Olympics show the way the world really works- that excellence and individual achievement are rewarded.

Right after Phelps made his last swim, I posted to Facebook the question "Which roads and bridges helped Phelps win all those Olympic medals?" You see, many global leaders, particularly our President, think that everyone is average and that nobody is special, that you didn't build that. They believe in shared sacrifice and shared outcomes, but they aren't going to give me a gold medal. I doubt Obama would have given one to Luke Skywalker for destroying the Death Star. What they really mean is that you don't deserve what you get unless they gave it to you. When they talk about how it's unfair, what they really mean is that they resent that they didn't get to dictate terms. Here are the real outcomes:





Using their own dictations, the numbers tell a different story. I compiled data on all nations earning at least three olympic medals, their population and GDP, and then I calculated what their "fair share" should be. The data showed an interesting story. The nation that won "too many" medals by both measurements was Jamaica, which won more than 2000% of its "fair share" of medals. The nation that got shafted the most was India, which received only 1% of its fair share by population and only 50% of its fair share by GDP. The United States won twice as many medals as its population suggests but only half as many as its GDP predicts. My friends in the UK, by contrast, won 600% of their fair share by Population and 112% of the medals by GDP. If anyone is overrepresented, it's the UK from whence the most complaints I heard came.

The Olympics show how the world actually works. China makes a concerted effort to be competitive and wins big. Other nations, in particular from the Caribbean where most of the unfairness occurs, see their efforts for excellence rewarded in a big way. Tally up all the Olympic results, and in all time, America has, with 5% of the population, won 12% of all medals. Unfair? Maybe, but that depends on what you use for comparison. America also attracts the best people from all nations because here you at least have a chance to be rewarded for excellence.

One other final statistical note of interest. Michael Phelps is being touted as "the greatest Olympian ever" while he took home 0.76% of all the medals. In order to even be statistically significant, he would have had to win 28 total medals just in this Olympics, which means his 'haul' is statistically insignificant.

The President of the United States, however, looks at it differently. I think he resents our excellence. Our politicians have fallen out of love with America, and they relish in the opportunity to diminish accomplishment and exacerbate faults. I find it very difficult to reason with people who exaggerate their virtues while they exaggerate my weaknesses. Either you celebrate excellence or you don't, and all of this talk about how the Olympics are 'unfair' smacks of pride and envy. Thou shalt not covet. When other nations win, I think that's cool. Ethiopia won its only medal in the Marathon where it took gold, which is only the second gold it ever won. That's huge! I am excited when America wins, but I do not lie and demagogue about our opponents, and I certainly don't celebrate their failure. You can celebrate excellence without depreciating your opponents. That's the great thing about the Olympics, and I'm glad they were successful and safe. Kudos to the UK for that.

Note: Olympic population data and GDP data taken from Yahoo Sports data on nations indicated. Olympic medal count accurate as of 13 August 2012. GDP calculated from total GDP of nations included. Population data derived from population of countries that participated. Calculations to nearest tenth. GDP and population represented in millions. Raw data available on request. Nations omitted that won fewer than three total medals. Data are for comparison and commentary only. No rights granted or implied. No permission to further transmit without attribution authorized.

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